Iraq

Neighbourly concerns

US withdrawal from Iraq triggers a new race among Middle Eastern neighbours to gain a foothold in the war ravaged country

By Mazhar Khan Jadoon

Seen as an end to foreign occupation, the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq has created a vacuum in a changed Middle East that has seen a decade of bloody war. Iraq’s neighbours, though happy with US withdrawal from a post-Saddam Iraq, are working out their own plans to gain strategic depth in the region to further their economic and political interests. The gigantic task ahead for the leaders and peoples of Middle East is to find ways to build regional stability and cooperation in a country ravaged by a long war and perennial sectarian conflict.

The entire Arab world is also struggling to gain a foothold in Iraq and change the political landscape — Saudi Arab is eyeing a Sunni Iraq while Iran is working for a Shia sway.

Iraq and Saudi Arabia

An Iraq without an authority able to assume the tasks that had been carried out by the departing American forces would threaten Saudi Arabia and Jordan, because Iraq may join the pro-Iran club backed by Syria. Saudi Arabia has, reportedly, also started building a 812-kilometre fence along the Saudi-Iraqi border. The purpose of the fence is to prevent terrorists from infiltrating into Saudi Arabia from Iraq. While right after the start of the 2003 Iraq War, the flow of terrorists was in the reverse direction, as Saudi mujahideen used to enter Iraq and join al-Qaeda to fight the US and its allies. Now Saudi Arabia sees itself as a future target. Saudi regime fears that al-Qaeda in Iraq will re-emerge and exploit their links with the al-Qaeda network in Saudi Arabia.

Iraq and Iran

With the absence of an agreed-upon government and with political rivals at loggerheads, the political vacuum gives Iran space to interfere in Iraq's affairs. Iran wants a prime minister in Iraq who will follow Iranian orders. Iran backs incumbent Shi'ite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, a secular Shi'ite who is friendly with the US and in close contact with the CIA. American withdrawal from Iraq will likely provide Iran unparalleled trade opportunities and access to steer the country’s political course in Tehran’s favour. Iran is already the main trading partner with Iraq with the volume of trade between the two nations nearing $10 billion.

Iraq and Syria

Jihadi elements, having connections with al-Qaeda and other Sunni militants groups, take the US withdrawal as a victory for Islamic fighters. Encouraged, they will keep crossing into Iraq to hit the American plans for a “US-friendly” Iraq. These forces have vowed to continue their attacks till the will of Allah prevails — and the actions on ground prove they mean business. Hence, their aggression against Iraq's population and institutions is expected to last as long as their ideology lasts. They are reportedly backed by ideological and financial circles inside Saudi Arabia. The success of US pullout hinges on the capacity of Iraqi administration to stop the flow of jihadists from Syria. Damascus may also come under renewed pressure from the United States and Britain to rein in militants within its borders.

Iraq and Turkey

Turkey, the old seat of Ottoman power, had successfully stayed out of Iraq war, refusing even to let US forces cross Turkish soil for the 2003 invasion. Turkey is running neck and neck with Iran as Iraq's biggest trading partner.

The United States, during its occupation of Iraq, had been providing intelligence about Kurdish rebel positions to Turk forces. Turkish forces had been carrying out ground incursion into Iraq to hit Kurs rebels. Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan had vowed to fight the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) to the end. Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari, himself a Kurd, has been critical of Turkish action and called on Erdogan to return to peaceful efforts to woo Turkey's large Kurdish minority away from violence. Both Turkey and Iraq will have to hammer out a strategy to tackle Kurd rebel irritant that is threatening stability on borders.

Iraq and Israel

Israel also should be concerned about the US withdrawal from Iraq before the establishment of a political structure that ensures a responsible government. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has shared his worries with US Defense Secretary Robert Gates about the emergence of a new eastern front, which may become the next threat to scared Tel Aviv. Right now, one of the biggest challenges that Israel may face from the changed Middle East is to stave off threats from a hostile milieu with charged militants. The situation is different now as US Army is no longer patrolling Iraqi territory.